BNP Paribas Securities puts buy on Sun Pharmaceutical
1 Nov, 2008.
Sun Pharmaceutical
cmp: Rs 1,122.90
target price: Rs 1,695
Citing a healthy earnings growth rate of 21% till 2010-2011, BNP Paribas Securities India has rated Sun Pharma a “buy”. “The management pointed out the possibility of disengaging from Taro given the recent turmoil in credit markets and availability of far superior assets. We believe this could be a strategy to expedite the transaction and not the real intention,” the brokerage said in a client note.
BNP has valued Taro at Rs 69 a share and assigned an option value of Rs 50 to the ‘visible exclusivity opportunities from the Para IV pipeline.’ “Given its strong cash position, the management hinted at the possibility of exploring other inorganic moves in the US generics space as long as they fit the company’s defined criterion of capital returns,” the brokerage added.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Saturday, October 4, 2008
IVRCL
Analysts' pick: IVRCL
4,Oct, 2008
IVRCL
CMP: Rs 235.05
Target price: Rs 308
Broking house Prabhudas Lilladher has maintained its ‘buy’ rating on the stock saying the stock is attractively valued at 14.5 times FY09 (estimated) earnings and 11.2 times FY10E earnings at the current market price.
“We expect the company to register a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 32% and 25% in revenues and PAT (profit after tax), respectively, for FY08-10(estimated),” said the broking house in a note to its clients.
According to the broking outfit, a substantial order book growth would be the primary driver of revenues for the company.
“The order book as on May 2008 stood at Rs 12,200 crore (year on year growth of 71%) as against Rs 7,100 crore. On account of focus on cash contracts, IVRCL enjoys a healthy order book position amongst the peers,” the note said.
IVRCL has improved upon its Sales/WC (working capital) ratio at 1.9 times as against 1.7 times in FY07 and is expected to maintain the same, says the broking house. “We believe that NWC (net working capital) position in future will depend upon order intake and projects reaching revenue reorganisation level,” the note added.
4,Oct, 2008
IVRCL
CMP: Rs 235.05
Target price: Rs 308
Broking house Prabhudas Lilladher has maintained its ‘buy’ rating on the stock saying the stock is attractively valued at 14.5 times FY09 (estimated) earnings and 11.2 times FY10E earnings at the current market price.
“We expect the company to register a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 32% and 25% in revenues and PAT (profit after tax), respectively, for FY08-10(estimated),” said the broking house in a note to its clients.
According to the broking outfit, a substantial order book growth would be the primary driver of revenues for the company.
“The order book as on May 2008 stood at Rs 12,200 crore (year on year growth of 71%) as against Rs 7,100 crore. On account of focus on cash contracts, IVRCL enjoys a healthy order book position amongst the peers,” the note said.
IVRCL has improved upon its Sales/WC (working capital) ratio at 1.9 times as against 1.7 times in FY07 and is expected to maintain the same, says the broking house. “We believe that NWC (net working capital) position in future will depend upon order intake and projects reaching revenue reorganisation level,” the note added.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Dabur
Dabur up as Nepal facility resumes operations
DALAL STREET SPIKES
September 27, 2008.
The share price of Dabur moved up by 2.30 per cent, or Rs 2, to close at Rs 89.05 on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The company's subsidiary in Nepal has resumed operations, ending nearly a month-long lock-out by a pro-Maoist union over labour tussle.
The company at Birgunj in the Parsa district resumed operations yesterday after it reached an agreement with the All Nepal Trade Union Federation Revolutionary and dropped a clause that said it would not pay wages for the strike period, sources in the company said. The stock touched a high of Rs 90 and a low of Rs 87 on BSE.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Sensex
Sensex likely to drop to 11K next month: Religare's Chakraborty
MUMBAI: The Sensex is likely to drop further to 11K level next month as foreign institutional investors are pulling out drastically due to liquidity crisis in the global market, said Amitabh Chakraborty, president-equity, Religare Securities.
“We are seeing the near-term bottom at 11,000 for the Sensex and 3,650 for the Nifty in the month of October because FIIs are in selling mode and will continue further," he said.
Foreign funds net sold $212.30 million in equity on Monday and $156 million Tuesday on news of Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy, according to SEBI data. So far, FIIs have pulled out over $1 billion from India.
Chakraborty said the present on-going problem is very much concerned with the financial economy, which is likely to shift towards non-financial economy by 2009 and the slowdown in real economy would be visible.
“More and more countries from emerging economies would come under the influence,” Chakraborty said.
However, there would be a short term bounce back in near future as a fair amount of liquidity has been pumped in by US, but the mid-term outlook is grim.
Retail investors should keep away for some more time and a better option for them would be to invest in a segment having strong cash position or other options like liquid and debt funds, he said.
MUMBAI: The Sensex is likely to drop further to 11K level next month as foreign institutional investors are pulling out drastically due to liquidity crisis in the global market, said Amitabh Chakraborty, president-equity, Religare Securities.
“We are seeing the near-term bottom at 11,000 for the Sensex and 3,650 for the Nifty in the month of October because FIIs are in selling mode and will continue further," he said.
Foreign funds net sold $212.30 million in equity on Monday and $156 million Tuesday on news of Lehman Brothers filing for bankruptcy, according to SEBI data. So far, FIIs have pulled out over $1 billion from India.
Chakraborty said the present on-going problem is very much concerned with the financial economy, which is likely to shift towards non-financial economy by 2009 and the slowdown in real economy would be visible.
“More and more countries from emerging economies would come under the influence,” Chakraborty said.
However, there would be a short term bounce back in near future as a fair amount of liquidity has been pumped in by US, but the mid-term outlook is grim.
Retail investors should keep away for some more time and a better option for them would be to invest in a segment having strong cash position or other options like liquid and debt funds, he said.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
ABB
Macquarie Research initiates 'underperformer' rating on ABB
10 Sep, 2008
ABB India
cmp: Rs 893.40
target price: Rs 728
Macquarie Research has initiated coverage on ABB India with an ‘underperformer’ rating saying ABB has traded at a significant premium to peers in the power sector equipment space.
“We expect growth to moderate and multiples to come off,” said Macquarie in a note to its clients. Macquarie expects the company’s growth to mod-erate to 26% CAGR over CY08-10.
“We expect ABB’s growth to come in line with BHEL’s (proxy to generation sector investment) projected growth. Our projected topline growth over CY08-10 is 26%, against 42% over CY05-07,” the note said. According to Macquarie, ABB has built-in price escalation clauses in its contracts and has also hedged key raw materials such as copper.
“We expect margins to remain stable on pass through clauses, earnings growth around 27%,” the note added.
Wait for more signals before turning positive
28 Jul, 2008,
At the recent low of 12514 points, the Sensex has tested the 12800-12000-pts support zone and has since then attempted a corrective rally. During the past trend phases in the Sensex, a monthly moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) cross-down below its trigger line, have, typically, led to a significant value erosion, with the corrective phase lasting, at least, for a year.
Therefore, immediate rallies would be interpreted as corrective in nature until the medium-term technical parameters turn positive. The recent upmove in the Sensex since the low of 12514 pts has been very sharp. The upside gap of July 23, 2008 had created a bullish ‘Island Reversal Gap’ on the daily charts between 14510 pts and 14519 pts.
Normally, the implications of this on the medium-term outlook would be very positive, especially since the “Island” comprised of 22 trading sessions. When a stock indicates an uptrend, trades above the gap which occurs, then gaps back down and trades below the initial price, an island reversal has occurred.
However, the Sensex has since run into a strong resistance zone between 15026 pts and 15390 pts. The monthly mid-point of June 2008 is at 15026 pts. The 50% retracement level of the fall from the May 2008 peak (17735 pts) is at 15124 pts. The positive implications of the bullish “Island Reversal Gap” would thus get negated if the Sensex has a daily close below 14104 pts (the close on July 22, 2008). The Sensex is then expected to have an initial downside of 13513 pts, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rise from 12514 pts to 15130 pts.
If the bearish “Island reversal gap” of 14484-14568 pts is immediately filled and the Sensex manages to decisively overhaul the resistances between 15130 pts and 15390 pts, the ongoing upmove would continue. The Sensex may then test higher levels between 16618 pts and 16860 pts.
The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from the May 2008 peak is at 16618 pts while 16860 pts is the 50% retracement level of the entire fall from the January 2008 peak. Hence, one would await further confirmation before turning positive on the medium-term outlook.
10 Sep, 2008
ABB India
cmp: Rs 893.40
target price: Rs 728
Macquarie Research has initiated coverage on ABB India with an ‘underperformer’ rating saying ABB has traded at a significant premium to peers in the power sector equipment space.
“We expect growth to moderate and multiples to come off,” said Macquarie in a note to its clients. Macquarie expects the company’s growth to mod-erate to 26% CAGR over CY08-10.
“We expect ABB’s growth to come in line with BHEL’s (proxy to generation sector investment) projected growth. Our projected topline growth over CY08-10 is 26%, against 42% over CY05-07,” the note said. According to Macquarie, ABB has built-in price escalation clauses in its contracts and has also hedged key raw materials such as copper.
“We expect margins to remain stable on pass through clauses, earnings growth around 27%,” the note added.
Wait for more signals before turning positive
28 Jul, 2008,
At the recent low of 12514 points, the Sensex has tested the 12800-12000-pts support zone and has since then attempted a corrective rally. During the past trend phases in the Sensex, a monthly moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) cross-down below its trigger line, have, typically, led to a significant value erosion, with the corrective phase lasting, at least, for a year.
Therefore, immediate rallies would be interpreted as corrective in nature until the medium-term technical parameters turn positive. The recent upmove in the Sensex since the low of 12514 pts has been very sharp. The upside gap of July 23, 2008 had created a bullish ‘Island Reversal Gap’ on the daily charts between 14510 pts and 14519 pts.
Normally, the implications of this on the medium-term outlook would be very positive, especially since the “Island” comprised of 22 trading sessions. When a stock indicates an uptrend, trades above the gap which occurs, then gaps back down and trades below the initial price, an island reversal has occurred.
However, the Sensex has since run into a strong resistance zone between 15026 pts and 15390 pts. The monthly mid-point of June 2008 is at 15026 pts. The 50% retracement level of the fall from the May 2008 peak (17735 pts) is at 15124 pts. The positive implications of the bullish “Island Reversal Gap” would thus get negated if the Sensex has a daily close below 14104 pts (the close on July 22, 2008). The Sensex is then expected to have an initial downside of 13513 pts, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rise from 12514 pts to 15130 pts.
If the bearish “Island reversal gap” of 14484-14568 pts is immediately filled and the Sensex manages to decisively overhaul the resistances between 15130 pts and 15390 pts, the ongoing upmove would continue. The Sensex may then test higher levels between 16618 pts and 16860 pts.
The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from the May 2008 peak is at 16618 pts while 16860 pts is the 50% retracement level of the entire fall from the January 2008 peak. Hence, one would await further confirmation before turning positive on the medium-term outlook.
Friday, August 15, 2008
Dish TV
Dish TV shines bright on debut in NSE F&O
August 14, 2008
Dish TV India on Wednesday surged 10.26 per cent to close at Rs 39.75 after being included in NSE’s futures and options segment with effect from August 21. NSE announced this yesterday after the market hours. The stock opened 7.07 per cent higher at Rs 38.60 and touched an intraday high of Rs 40.45.
The counter witnessed volumes of 76,78,034 shares vis-à-vis a two-week average of 34,47,892 shares. The stock hit a 52-week high of Rs 106.4 on January 1 and a 52-week low of Rs 26.3 on July 2. The scrip has gained 18.1 per cent in the last one week.
August 14, 2008
Dish TV India on Wednesday surged 10.26 per cent to close at Rs 39.75 after being included in NSE’s futures and options segment with effect from August 21. NSE announced this yesterday after the market hours. The stock opened 7.07 per cent higher at Rs 38.60 and touched an intraday high of Rs 40.45.
The counter witnessed volumes of 76,78,034 shares vis-à-vis a two-week average of 34,47,892 shares. The stock hit a 52-week high of Rs 106.4 on January 1 and a 52-week low of Rs 26.3 on July 2. The scrip has gained 18.1 per cent in the last one week.
Saturday, August 9, 2008
Tata Motors
Anand Rathi puts 'buy' on Tata Motors
7 Aug, 2008
Anand Rathi Securities has initiated a medium term technical 'buy' call on Tata Motors. The brokerage suggests buying this stock between Rs 430-440 with a stoploss of Rs 399 for a target of Rs 520. The current market price is Rs 440.
The stock has sustained above its strong resistance levels at Rs 435-440. The 14-day Relative Strength Index indicates the stock is in an oversold zone and the candle stick chart has formed a bullish engulfing pattern.
“We strongly believe that the stock has entered into medium term bullishness with substantial upside,” Anand Rathi says in its report
7 Aug, 2008
Anand Rathi Securities has initiated a medium term technical 'buy' call on Tata Motors. The brokerage suggests buying this stock between Rs 430-440 with a stoploss of Rs 399 for a target of Rs 520. The current market price is Rs 440.
The stock has sustained above its strong resistance levels at Rs 435-440. The 14-day Relative Strength Index indicates the stock is in an oversold zone and the candle stick chart has formed a bullish engulfing pattern.
“We strongly believe that the stock has entered into medium term bullishness with substantial upside,” Anand Rathi says in its report
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
HDFC Bank
Indiabulls maintains 'buy' on HDFC Bank
6 Aug, 2008
CMP: Rs 1,184.35
Target price: Rs 1,400
Indiabulls has maintained a ‘buy’ rating on HDFC Bank as it feels that the bank would revert to its more profitable numbers once Centurion Bank of Punjab (CBoP) is integrated in its existing network.
“Sound fundamentals make HDFC Bank a strong performer,” says the report, adding that “despite taking a nominal hit on its net interest margin (NIM) post the merger with CBoP, net interest income (NII) grew by 74.9% YoY and fee income by 37.3% YoY.” This pulled up net profit by 44.6% and on a proforma basis, by 31.1%.
While the bank recorded a 111.60% YoY increase in its non-performing assets, the brokerage feels it is more on account of the merger than due to a deterioration in asset quality, since HDFC Bank’s net NPA ratio stood at 0.5% of net advances this quarter.
6 Aug, 2008
CMP: Rs 1,184.35
Target price: Rs 1,400
Indiabulls has maintained a ‘buy’ rating on HDFC Bank as it feels that the bank would revert to its more profitable numbers once Centurion Bank of Punjab (CBoP) is integrated in its existing network.
“Sound fundamentals make HDFC Bank a strong performer,” says the report, adding that “despite taking a nominal hit on its net interest margin (NIM) post the merger with CBoP, net interest income (NII) grew by 74.9% YoY and fee income by 37.3% YoY.” This pulled up net profit by 44.6% and on a proforma basis, by 31.1%.
While the bank recorded a 111.60% YoY increase in its non-performing assets, the brokerage feels it is more on account of the merger than due to a deterioration in asset quality, since HDFC Bank’s net NPA ratio stood at 0.5% of net advances this quarter.
Friday, August 1, 2008
MTNL
1 Aug, 2008,
MUMBAI: Shares of MTNL picked up steam after the telecommunications ministry announced that BSNL and MTNL will be allotted high-speed third-generation spectrum right away.
A global auction for 3G mobile services will be held and have five operators initially. The new guidelines for 3G spectrum, released today, provides for a reserve price for availing of radio frequency.
The department of telecommunications has also fixed the base price at Rs 160 crore for metros and category A circles, Rs 80 crore for category B, and Rs 30 crore for C circles, respectively for 3G spectrum auctions.
The guidelines for 'mobile number portability', also released by the government, MTNL shares up 6% on 3G spectrum allocation
1 Aug, 2008,
proposes dividing the country into two zones for implementing the scheme that is prevalent in most mature telecom markets.
India has 60 MHz of 3G spectrum available, and will allow both GSM and CDMA 3G services.
At 12:45 pm, MTNL shares soared 6.45 per cent to Rs 110.50. Among other telcom players, Bharti Airtel was marginally higher, Tata Communications rose 2.03 per cent while Idea Cellular lost 0.79 per cent.
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
IOCL
Oil firms to raise diesel imports
July 31, 2008, 0:00 IST
IOCL, BPCL, HPCL may buy 3.5 mt from
Indian Oil abroad to meet demand
Indian Oil Corporaton (IOCL), the nation’s biggest refiner, and its state-run counterparts may import 3.5 million tonnes of diesel in the year ending March 2009 to meet demand for the fuel.
IOCL, Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) imported 2.93 million tonnes of diesel in the last financial year, making good the shortfall in supply created by increased exports from Reliance Industries’ Jamnagar refinery in Gujarat.
IOCL will increase diesel imports to 1.2 million tonnes in the financial year to March 2009 from 670,000 tonnes last year, Serangulam V Narasimhan, director (finance), IOCL, told reporters in New Delhi today.
The refiner has imported 200,000 tonnes of the fuel so far this year, Narasimhan said. The company does not plan to import diesel in the next two to three months as demand usually lows during the monsoon, he said.
Demand for diesel is growing at the rate of around 25 per cent, while the Indian refiners have capacities to meet the growth in demand up to 15 per cent. The higher demand and production capacity constraints necessitate increased imports.
Reliance exports almost all of the 11 million tonnes of diesel it produces from its refinery after it was given the status of an export-oriented unit early last year.
“At the worst of times, the diesel demand growth has been 8-10 per cent,” said IOCL Chairman and Managing Director Sarthak Behuria. He added that demand for the fuel increases as it is used to generate electricity from generator sets during power failures.
He added that the demand growth has been high in states like Karnataka, where the power crisis has been severe.
Oil marketing companies sell diesel to industrial users as well as retail consumers at the same subsidised prices. “This has created the jump in demand,” Behuria said.
Diesel is the largest-selling fuel in the country. The country consumed 47.64 million tonnes of the fuel in 2007-08. Consumption is expected to be higher by around 20 per cent this year.
July 31, 2008, 0:00 IST
IOCL, BPCL, HPCL may buy 3.5 mt from
Indian Oil abroad to meet demand
Indian Oil Corporaton (IOCL), the nation’s biggest refiner, and its state-run counterparts may import 3.5 million tonnes of diesel in the year ending March 2009 to meet demand for the fuel.
IOCL, Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) imported 2.93 million tonnes of diesel in the last financial year, making good the shortfall in supply created by increased exports from Reliance Industries’ Jamnagar refinery in Gujarat.
IOCL will increase diesel imports to 1.2 million tonnes in the financial year to March 2009 from 670,000 tonnes last year, Serangulam V Narasimhan, director (finance), IOCL, told reporters in New Delhi today.
The refiner has imported 200,000 tonnes of the fuel so far this year, Narasimhan said. The company does not plan to import diesel in the next two to three months as demand usually lows during the monsoon, he said.
Demand for diesel is growing at the rate of around 25 per cent, while the Indian refiners have capacities to meet the growth in demand up to 15 per cent. The higher demand and production capacity constraints necessitate increased imports.
Reliance exports almost all of the 11 million tonnes of diesel it produces from its refinery after it was given the status of an export-oriented unit early last year.
“At the worst of times, the diesel demand growth has been 8-10 per cent,” said IOCL Chairman and Managing Director Sarthak Behuria. He added that demand for the fuel increases as it is used to generate electricity from generator sets during power failures.
He added that the demand growth has been high in states like Karnataka, where the power crisis has been severe.
Oil marketing companies sell diesel to industrial users as well as retail consumers at the same subsidised prices. “This has created the jump in demand,” Behuria said.
Diesel is the largest-selling fuel in the country. The country consumed 47.64 million tonnes of the fuel in 2007-08. Consumption is expected to be higher by around 20 per cent this year.
ICICI Bank
ICICI Bank: Hard times
Mumbai July 29, 2008,
A slower loan growth could hurt profits.
One reason why ICICI Bank has seen a 6 per cent fall in its net profit for the June 2008 quarter is that its total income has barely budged. The interest earned from loans—the bank’s core business—is up just 5.6 per cent and it is the 37 per cent rise in income from fees that has pulled up the topline. Treasury losses of close to Rs 600 crore too have hurt profits.
If the fall in the bottomline isn’t sharper, it is because the bank has managed to keep costs in check. Thanks to a higher share of cheaper current and savings accounts (CASA), which went up by about 500 basis points, it has paid less to borrow .That’s why the net interest margin (nim) has risen by 45 basis points y-o-y to 2.4 per cent and stayed flat sequentially. Besides, expenses on direct marketing have been slashed.
The loan book has grown by just 13 per cent for the stand-alone entity while for the consolidated entity, it was up 20 per cent. The management says it will scale back retail loan targets to 5-10 per cent this year though the corporate book could grow by about 25 per cent.
Given that fee incomes will not be as easy to come by — especially in the derivatives segments, the bank could grow at a slower pace this year. Margins may remain stable with the bank able to access more low cost deposits from an expanding branch network.
The real problem area, however, is the rising quantum of non-performing loans (npls). Net npls are up at Rs 1,300 crore compared with Rs 1,100 crore in the March 2008 quarter: loan defaults could increase in a weakening economic environment.
The ICICI Bank stock came off by close to 10 per cent on Friday to close at Rs 656.85. At this price, the stock trades at about 1.1 times estimated FY09 book value and is not expensive. However, the worst may not be over given that the environment remains challenging.
Mumbai July 29, 2008,
A slower loan growth could hurt profits.
One reason why ICICI Bank has seen a 6 per cent fall in its net profit for the June 2008 quarter is that its total income has barely budged. The interest earned from loans—the bank’s core business—is up just 5.6 per cent and it is the 37 per cent rise in income from fees that has pulled up the topline. Treasury losses of close to Rs 600 crore too have hurt profits.
If the fall in the bottomline isn’t sharper, it is because the bank has managed to keep costs in check. Thanks to a higher share of cheaper current and savings accounts (CASA), which went up by about 500 basis points, it has paid less to borrow .That’s why the net interest margin (nim) has risen by 45 basis points y-o-y to 2.4 per cent and stayed flat sequentially. Besides, expenses on direct marketing have been slashed.
The loan book has grown by just 13 per cent for the stand-alone entity while for the consolidated entity, it was up 20 per cent. The management says it will scale back retail loan targets to 5-10 per cent this year though the corporate book could grow by about 25 per cent.
Given that fee incomes will not be as easy to come by — especially in the derivatives segments, the bank could grow at a slower pace this year. Margins may remain stable with the bank able to access more low cost deposits from an expanding branch network.
The real problem area, however, is the rising quantum of non-performing loans (npls). Net npls are up at Rs 1,300 crore compared with Rs 1,100 crore in the March 2008 quarter: loan defaults could increase in a weakening economic environment.
The ICICI Bank stock came off by close to 10 per cent on Friday to close at Rs 656.85. At this price, the stock trades at about 1.1 times estimated FY09 book value and is not expensive. However, the worst may not be over given that the environment remains challenging.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
